Launch delay outlook

Updated Tue 27 Oct 2026 21:14 UTC. Next 14 days. History: 1284 past launches, 66 with a firm time a week out. Track record · How to read this

Experimental. These are historical rates for groups of launches, not predictions for a specific launch.

At a glance

Launch Name	Announced Launch Day and Time (UTC)	Days Until Launch Time	Chance of a 6+ hour delay
Falcon 9 Block 5 \| Starlink Group 15-18	Fri 30 Oct 04:02	2.3	23%
GSLV Mk II \| IRNSS-1L (NVS-03)	Fri 30 Oct 18:21	2.9	24% reference only
Falcon 9 Block 5 \| USSF-432	Mon 02 Nov 01:56	5.2	51%
Electron \| The Sea God Surveys (iQPS Launch 9)	Tue 03 Nov 00:00	6.1	no forecast
Falcon 9 Block 5 \| Starlink Group 15-21	Thu 05 Nov 02:35	8.2	51%
Long March 12 \| SatNet LEO Group TBD?	Thu 05 Nov 20:00	8.9	no forecast
Electron \| The Mountain God Rises (iQPS Launch 10)	Tue 10 Nov 00:00	13.1	no forecast

The last column is the share of similar past launches (same group, same number of days before launch) that took off more than 6 hours after the firm time the operator had published. It is not a forecast for that launch. Each card below has the range and sample size.

Falcon 9 Block 5 | Starlink Group 15-18

SpaceX · Space Launch Complex 4E
Target Fri 30 Oct 2026 04:02 UTC (in 2.3 days)

firm time publishedoperator status: Go for Launch, not a guarantee

Delay outlook

23%of similar past launches slipped

95% range 15% to 32%93 past launchesconfidence: moderate

Slipped by	Share of similar launches	Launches	95% range
more than 6 hours	23%	21 of 93	15% to 32%
more than 24 hours	16%	15 of 93	10% to 25%
more than 72 hours	0%	0 of 93	0% to 4%

Longer slips are rarer, so their ranges are wider. They also tend to have different causes (hardware, payload or range problems rather than weather).

Of 93 past launches in SpaceX that had a firm date and time published about 3 days before launch, 21 launched more than 6 hours later. It describes the group, not this launch.

How the odds change as launch gets closer, and why launches slipped

Firm time published	Group	Launches	Slipped more than 6 h
1 day before	SpaceX	116	13% (8% to 20%)
3 days before (this launch)	SpaceX	93	23% (15% to 32%)
7 days before	SpaceX	61	51% (39% to 63%)
14 days before	SpaceX	10	100% (72% to 100%) (very low confidence: only 10 launches)

Reasons the operator gave: for 18 of the 21 slips none was stated; named: weather 3. Too few to say why launches like this slip.

Confidence reflects how many past launches the number rests on: very low under 25, low 25 to 59, moderate 60 or more.

Context

No other launch from this range within 12 hours
Falcon 9: 697 flights all-time; last failure 12 Jul 2024
Launch window: 240 minutes

Shown for context. None of this is in the percentage.

Weather

Source	Rain chance	Lightning	Wind mph	Gust mph	Cloud	As of
NWS (forecast model at the launch site)	22%	no	3.5	3.5	82%	27 Oct 21:13Z

Highest value across the launch window. Model values and airport forecasts measure different things, so they can disagree.

Airport forecasts do not reach this launch yet (they cover about 30 hours).

Forecast discussion and airfield detail

Regional NWS forecast discussion (covers the whole forecast area, not only the pad) mentions: fog rain (issued 27 Oct 16:53Z).

GSLV Mk II | IRNSS-1L (NVS-03)

Indian Space Research Organization · Satish Dhawan Space Centre Second Launch Pad
Target Fri 30 Oct 2026 18:21 UTC (in 2.9 days)

firm time publishedoperator status: Go for Launch, not a guarantee

Delay outlook

No comparable history for Indian Space Research Organization (fewer than 10 past launches with a firm time). The figure below pools all providers, most of them SpaceX, and is shown for reference only. Do not read it as a forecast for this launch.

24%reference only

95% range 17% to 33%96 past launchesconfidence: moderate

Slipped by	Share of similar launches	Launches	95% range
more than 6 hours	24%	23 of 96	17% to 33%
more than 24 hours	18%	17 of 96	11% to 27%
more than 72 hours	0%	0 of 96	0% to 4%

Longer slips are rarer, so their ranges are wider. They also tend to have different causes (hardware, payload or range problems rather than weather).

Of 96 past launches in all providers that had a firm date and time published about 3 days before launch, 23 launched more than 6 hours later. It describes the group, not this launch.

How the odds change as launch gets closer, and why launches slipped

Firm time published	Group	Launches	Slipped more than 6 h
1 day before	all providers	117	13% (8% to 20%)
3 days before (this launch)	all providers	96	24% (17% to 33%)
7 days before	all providers	66	52% (40% to 63%)
14 days before	all providers	11	100% (74% to 100%) (very low confidence: only 11 launches)

Reasons the operator gave: for 20 of the 23 slips none was stated; named: weather 3. Too few to say why launches like this slip.

Confidence reflects how many past launches the number rests on: very low under 25, low 25 to 59, moderate 60 or more.

Context

No other launch from this range within 12 hours
GSLV Mk II: 13 flights all-time; last failure 12 Aug 2021
Launch window: 240 minutes

Shown for context. None of this is in the percentage.

Weather

Source	Rain chance	Lightning	Wind mph	Gust mph	Cloud	As of
MET Norway (forecast model at the launch site)	not available	unknown	5.6	not available	0%	27 Oct 12:47Z

Highest value across the launch window. Model values and airport forecasts measure different things, so they can disagree.

Falcon 9 Block 5 | USSF-432

SpaceX · Space Launch Complex 4E
Target Mon 02 Nov 2026 01:56 UTC (in 5.2 days)

firm time publishedoperator status: Go for Launch, not a guarantee

Delay outlook

51%of similar past launches slipped

95% range 39% to 63%61 past launchesconfidence: moderate

Slipped by	Share of similar launches	Launches	95% range
more than 6 hours	51%	31 of 61	39% to 63%
more than 24 hours	46%	28 of 61	34% to 58%
more than 72 hours	8%	5 of 61	4% to 18%

Longer slips are rarer, so their ranges are wider. They also tend to have different causes (hardware, payload or range problems rather than weather).

Of 61 past launches in SpaceX that had a firm date and time published about 7 days before launch, 31 launched more than 6 hours later. It describes the group, not this launch.

How the odds change as launch gets closer, and why launches slipped

Firm time published	Group	Launches	Slipped more than 6 h
1 day before	SpaceX	116	13% (8% to 20%)
3 days before	SpaceX	93	23% (15% to 32%)
7 days before (this launch)	SpaceX	61	51% (39% to 63%)
14 days before	SpaceX	10	100% (72% to 100%) (very low confidence: only 10 launches)

Reasons the operator gave: for 30 of the 31 slips none was stated; named: weather 1. Too few to say why launches like this slip.

Confidence reflects how many past launches the number rests on: very low under 25, low 25 to 59, moderate 60 or more.

Context

No other launch from this range within 12 hours
Falcon 9: 697 flights all-time; last failure 12 Jul 2024
Launch window: 240 minutes

Shown for context. None of this is in the percentage.

Weather

Source	Rain chance	Lightning	Wind mph	Gust mph	Cloud	As of
NWS (forecast model at the launch site)	6%	no	16.1	21.9	25%	27 Oct 21:13Z

Highest value across the launch window. Model values and airport forecasts measure different things, so they can disagree.

Airport forecasts do not reach this launch yet (they cover about 30 hours).

Forecast discussion and airfield detail

Regional NWS forecast discussion (covers the whole forecast area, not only the pad) mentions: fog rain (issued 27 Oct 16:53Z).

Electron | The Sea God Surveys (iQPS Launch 9)

Rocket Lab · Unknown Pad
Target Tue 03 Nov 2026 00:00 UTC (in 6.1 days)

no firm time yetoperator status: To Be Determined, not a guarantee

Delay outlook

No forecast shown. There is no comparable history for Rocket Lab (fewer than 10 past launches with a firm time) and this launch has no firm time yet, so any number would mislead.

How the odds change as launch gets closer, and why launches slipped

Firm time published	Group	Launches	Slipped more than 6 h
1 day before	all providers	117	13% (8% to 20%)
3 days before	all providers	96	24% (17% to 33%)
7 days before (this launch)	all providers	66	52% (40% to 63%)
14 days before	all providers	11	100% (74% to 100%) (very low confidence: only 11 launches)

Reasons the operator gave: for 32 of the 34 slips none was stated; named: weather 2. Too few to say why launches like this slip.

Confidence reflects how many past launches the number rests on: very low under 25, low 25 to 59, moderate 60 or more.

Context

No other launch from this range within 12 hours
Electron: 89 flights all-time; last failure 19 Sep 2023
Launch window: instantaneous

Shown for context. None of this is in the percentage.

Weather

Source	Rain chance	Lightning	Wind mph	Gust mph	Cloud	As of
MET Norway (forecast model at the launch site)	not available	unknown	8.7	not available	6%	27 Oct 12:47Z

Highest value across the launch window. Model values and airport forecasts measure different things, so they can disagree.

Falcon 9 Block 5 | Starlink Group 15-21

SpaceX · Space Launch Complex 4E
Target Thu 05 Nov 2026 02:35 UTC (in 8.2 days)

firm time publishedoperator status: Go for Launch, not a guarantee

Delay outlook

51%of similar past launches slipped

95% range 39% to 63%61 past launchesconfidence: moderate

Slipped by	Share of similar launches	Launches	95% range
more than 6 hours	51%	31 of 61	39% to 63%
more than 24 hours	46%	28 of 61	34% to 58%
more than 72 hours	8%	5 of 61	4% to 18%

Longer slips are rarer, so their ranges are wider. They also tend to have different causes (hardware, payload or range problems rather than weather).

Of 61 past launches in SpaceX that had a firm date and time published about 7 days before launch, 31 launched more than 6 hours later. It describes the group, not this launch.

How the odds change as launch gets closer, and why launches slipped

Firm time published	Group	Launches	Slipped more than 6 h
1 day before	SpaceX	116	13% (8% to 20%)
3 days before	SpaceX	93	23% (15% to 32%)
7 days before (this launch)	SpaceX	61	51% (39% to 63%)
14 days before	SpaceX	10	100% (72% to 100%) (very low confidence: only 10 launches)

Reasons the operator gave: for 30 of the 31 slips none was stated; named: weather 1. Too few to say why launches like this slip.

Confidence reflects how many past launches the number rests on: very low under 25, low 25 to 59, moderate 60 or more.

Context

No other launch from this range within 12 hours
Falcon 9: 697 flights all-time; last failure 12 Jul 2024
Launch window: 240 minutes

Shown for context. None of this is in the percentage.

Weather

Source	Rain chance	Lightning	Wind mph	Gust mph	Cloud	As of
NWS (forecast model at the launch site)	beyond forecast range					27 Oct 10:24Z

Highest value across the launch window. Model values and airport forecasts measure different things, so they can disagree.

Airport forecasts do not reach this launch yet (they cover about 30 hours).

Forecast discussion and airfield detail

Regional NWS forecast discussion (covers the whole forecast area, not only the pad) mentions: fog rain (issued 27 Oct 16:53Z).

Long March 12 | SatNet LEO Group TBD?

China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation · Commercial LC-2
Target Thu 05 Nov 2026 20:00 UTC (in 8.9 days)

no firm time yetoperator status: To Be Confirmed, not a guarantee

Delay outlook

No forecast shown. There is no comparable history for China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (fewer than 10 past launches with a firm time) and this launch has no firm time yet, so any number would mislead.

How the odds change as launch gets closer, and why launches slipped

Firm time published	Group	Launches	Slipped more than 6 h
1 day before	all providers	117	13% (8% to 20%)
3 days before	all providers	96	24% (17% to 33%)
7 days before (this launch)	all providers	66	52% (40% to 63%)
14 days before	all providers	11	100% (74% to 100%) (very low confidence: only 11 launches)

Reasons the operator gave: for 32 of the 34 slips none was stated; named: weather 2. Too few to say why launches like this slip.

Confidence reflects how many past launches the number rests on: very low under 25, low 25 to 59, moderate 60 or more.

Context

No other launch from this range within 12 hours
Chang Zheng 12: 9 flights all-time; no failures on record
Launch window: 180 minutes

Shown for context. None of this is in the percentage.

Weather

Source	Rain chance	Lightning	Wind mph	Gust mph	Cloud	As of
MET Norway (forecast model at the launch site)	not available	unknown	4.9	not available	23%	27 Oct 21:13Z

Highest value across the launch window. Model values and airport forecasts measure different things, so they can disagree.

Electron | The Mountain God Rises (iQPS Launch 10)

Rocket Lab · Unknown Pad
Target Tue 10 Nov 2026 00:00 UTC (in 13.1 days)

no firm time yetoperator status: To Be Determined, not a guarantee

Delay outlook

No forecast shown. There is no comparable history for Rocket Lab (fewer than 10 past launches with a firm time) and this launch has no firm time yet, so any number would mislead.

How the odds change as launch gets closer, and why launches slipped

Firm time published	Group	Launches	Slipped more than 6 h
1 day before	all providers	117	13% (8% to 20%)
3 days before	all providers	96	24% (17% to 33%)
7 days before	all providers	66	52% (40% to 63%)
14 days before (this launch)	all providers	11	100% (74% to 100%) (very low confidence: only 11 launches)

Reasons the operator gave: for 11 of the 11 slips none was stated. Too few to say why launches like this slip.

Confidence reflects how many past launches the number rests on: very low under 25, low 25 to 59, moderate 60 or more.

Context

No other launch from this range within 12 hours
Electron: 89 flights all-time; last failure 19 Sep 2023
Launch window: instantaneous

Shown for context. None of this is in the percentage.

Weather

No point forecast recorded for this launch yet. Point forecasts cover the US and parts of Europe only.

Track record

Does the number mean anything? Two checks: what happened to the predictions this page actually issued, and what the same method would have said for past launches using only the launches before each one.

Predictions issued by this page

Since 2026-10-26: 5 predictions saved, 0 scored, 5 waiting for the launch result, 0 not scoreable (the history found no firm time to measure against).

The same method run over past launches

Firm time published	Launches tested	Average prediction	Actually slipped
1 day before	106	18%	11%
3 days before	83	26%	19%
7 days before	51	58%	47%

By size of prediction

When we said	Launches	Average prediction	Actually slipped
under 15%	55	13%	11%
15% to 29%	117	23%	17%
30% to 49%	16	36%	12%
50% or more	52	57%	46%

Each past launch was predicted using only launches before it, from groups with enough history to show a headline figure. Because the number is a group average, it should match the overall rate; what this checks is that the rates were stable over time. It cannot tell which launches in a group will slip. A prediction that does would show a gap between the low and high rows in the second table.

How to read this page

What a delay is. A launch that happened more than 6 hours after a firm date and time the operator had published. A firm time means a time of day was given and not marked unconfirmed. "Go for launch" comments are not used.

What the percentage is. The share of past launches in the same group that slipped that way, for the same number of days before launch. A group is a provider, split into Starlink and other launches when both have enough history. It is not a model of this launch and does not include weather, vehicle or payload readiness, or range conflicts. It applies to launches that have published a firm time, which only about 5% of past launches had a week ahead.

Confidence reflects how many past launches the number rests on: very low under 25, low 25 to 59, moderate 60 or more.

Sources: Launch Library 2 (schedule and history), NWS and MET Norway point forecasts, NOAA Aviation Weather Center airport forecasts, local NWS forecast discussions, National Hurricane Center feeds, and 45th Weather Squadron forecasts saved by hand.

Vehicle flight counts and failures: launch log by Jonathan McDowell, https://planet4589.org (licensed CC-BY), updated 2026 Oct 26 0019:48.